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EURUSD+ is the most traded currency pair in the world.
Of the US$ 9.6 trillion worth of currencies that are traded every single day:
Most-traded currency: US dollar accounts for one side of 89% of all FX trades
2nd most trade-trade currency: Euro accounts for 28.9% of all FX trades
(SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements' 2025 Triennial Central Bank Survey, September 2025)
And the world's most-traded FX pair is about to send a strong signal that trader's can't ignore!
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on EURUSD+ is very close to crossing below its 200-day counterpart.
When this technical event happens (500-day SMA crosses below 200-day SMA), it's called a "death cross".
Ask TradeGPT: What is a simple moving average? How can traders use this technical indicator?
Historically, a "death cross" suggests that prices are about to fall further after that technical event.
Here's a look back at EURUSD's performance after each of its 6 "death crosses" over the past decade:
Oct 24, 2016: fell almost 5% till intraday low on Jan 3, 2017 (span of 71 days)
June 7, 2018: fell 9.9% till intraday low on March 23, 2020 (span of 655 days)
July 22, 2021: fell 19% till intraday low on Sept 28, 2022 (span of 433 days)
Sept 29, 2023: fell 1% till intraday low on Oct 3, 2023 (span of 4 days)
March 29, 2024: fell about 1.8% till intraday low on April 16, 2024 (span of 18 days)
Nov 25, 2024: fell about 3.4% till intraday low on Feb 3, 2025 (span of 4 days)
Will EURUSD+ form a death cross soon? Watch these 2 events over next 24 hours.
Referring back to the first EURUSD+ chart at the top, with the:
50-day SMA now at 1.16729
200-day SMA now at 1.16718
In other words ...
The "death cross" looms large for EURUSD+, and appears likely.
However, from a fundamental perspective, here are 2 events to keep an eye on for the immediate future:
1) Saturday, April 11th: US-Iran ceasefire talks
The US and Iran are set to hold negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan starting tomorrow, in a bid to bring an end to the Iran war that's currently on pause.
However, as Bybit Learn's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, noted to the media this week:
"The fragile ceasefire remains on shaky ground ... Should this pause in the war shatter abruptly, risk assets are bound to give up much of their recent gains"
Note: Risk assets include the likes of EURUSD+, stock indexes, cryptos = assets that investors and traders are more willing to buy when there's less fear/uncertainties in the world.
2) US CPI (consumer price index a.k.a. headline inflation): Friday, April 10 @ 12:30 PM UTC
Potential scenarios: EURUSD+
According to Bloomberg's FX model, there's a 77.6% chance EURUSD trades between 1.1566 - 1.1812 over the next one week.
DOWNSIDE: Should US-Iran ceasefire talks crumble over the weekend, marking a re-escalation in the Iran war, coupled with higher-than-expected US CPI figures, that may result in a stronger US dollar that drags EURUSD below 1.1600 through next week.
UPSIDE: Should US-Iran ceasefire talks produce positive developments over the weekend that further de-escalates this conflict, along with lower-than-expected US CPI figures, that may further weaken the US dollar while boosting EURUSD to 1.1800 through next week.
NOTE: At the time of writing, the US dollar (as measured by the DXY = benchmark US dollar index) has fallen 1% so far this week, set for its biggest weekly drop in 11 weeks (since January 2026).
Check in: 3 Assets to Watch (April 6-10)
SP500: +3.6% so far this week (prior to Friday's cash market open) - biggest weekly gain since Nov 2025.
If the SP500 enters the weekend with a weekly gain of more than 3.81%, perhaps by way of lower-than-expected CPI numbers and/or positive developments leading up to Saturday's US-Iran ceasefire talks, that would mark the S&P 500's biggest weekly gain since May 2025.
As things stand, the SP500 is set for its first back-to-back weekly gains so far in 2026.
NZDUSD+ up 2.6% so far this week - biggest weekly gain since Jan 2026.
On April 8th, this G10 FX pair breached the 0.5800 upside target we drew since Monday, April 6th.
At the time of writing, pre-CPI release, NZDUSD+ is trading around its 200-day SMA.
NZD is the 2nd-best performing G10 currency against the US dollar so far this week.
This puts NZD just behind the Norwegian Krone that gained 2.7% vs. the USD (USDNOK+ falls) week to date.
READ MORE (published Wed, April 8): US-Iran Ceasefire Triggers Spectacular Moves
However, Cardano (ADAUSDT) merely climbed 1.1% so far this week, with the 50-day SMA resistance proving too tough to beat for the time being.
Despite entering the week as the biggest month-to-date gainer amongst the 10 biggest digital tokens (by market cap, excluding stablecoins), ADA this week underperformed its major crypto peers, such as BTC (+7.2% week-to-date) and ETH (+6.4% wtd).
Still, 2 out of 3 outperformers for this week is not a bad shout, if we may say so ourselves.
More importantly ...
Did you miss out?
Watch for more potential volatility when the US CPI lands today (Fri, April 10th) @ 12:30 PM UTC, along with the latest developments surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire talks.
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