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Ongoing Middle East war set to cast risk-off tone across global markets at the start of the week
24/7 assets (Bitcoin, XAUt0, SPYx) have mostly taken the conflict in stride over the weekend
Brent Oil may revisit $80/bbl, unless OPEC+ intervenes with bigger output hikes
Gold could hit new ATH on greater safe haven demand, amid heightened fear, risks, and uncertainties
Geopolitical risk premiums are often swiftly faded out, but prolonged conflict may spell more volatility
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The widening Middle East conflict is likely to strike a risk-off tone to markets at the onset of the new trading week/month.
Yet, as an initial reaction, 24/7 assets such as cryptos and tokenised assets are taking matters in stride:
Bitcoin (BTCUST) initially saw a knee-jerk spike down to $63k, before rebounding at the time of writing (Sunday, March 1st) to be resisted once again by a familiar foe - its 21-day simple moving average.
Prices of the world's biggest and oldest crypto are still adhering to the $60k - $70k range it has stuck to since February 5th-6th.
XAUt0 - the tokenized gold asset on Bybit Alpha - also briefly spiked above the psychologically-important $5500 level but was unable to sustain such lofty heights.
No surprise that XAUt0 is the top-trending asset on Bybit Alpha over the past 24 hours amid heightened fears, risks, and uncertainties.
Bybit Alpha's SPYx is falling about 1% on Sunday, March 1st, though remains very much within its recent range (between 675 - 700 range it has largely adhered to for the past 3 months).
NOTE: Bybit Alpha's SPYx tracks the SPY ETF (exchange-traded fund) that in turn follows the benchmark S&P 500 - the most widely-followed US stock index.
The above price action shows that the initial reaction over the weekend, at least for 24/7 assets, appear constrained.
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Despite the relatively muted reactions for 24/7 assets on Bybit Alpha ...
Constant vigilance is required at the onset of the new trading week and month.
Here are 3 assets that are set to grab market's attentions amid this ongoing conflict in the Middle East:
1) Oil to revisit $80?
On Friday, February 27th, even prior to the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began, Brent oil (Bybit: UKOUSD) - the global oil benchmark - had already soared to an 8-month peak (highest since June 2025 - back when US and Israel also struck Iran).
Markets fear that the ongoing conflict would halt oil supplies flowing through the Strait of Hormuz - a narrow passage where about 20% of the world's seaborne oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) flow through.
ECONS 101: Lesser supply tends to send prices higher, assuming demand remains equal.
Market chatter already suggests an eventual revisit to $80/bbl for Brent prices over the near term.
What could limit oil's upside?
BREAKING NEWS: On Sunday, March 1st, at the monthly scheduled meeting, OPEC+ has agreed in principle to a slightly bigger output hike of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting April 2026.
That 206k bpd is larger than the usual 137k bpd of increased output per month that OPEC+ triggered back in Q4 2025.
Recall also that OPEC+, the global cartel of major oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, had paused its intended production hikes for Q1 2026.
OPEC+ may yet send out even more of its oil supplies into the global economy in the future to prevent oil prices from soaring amid this ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
However, such ambitions also very much depend on whether oil can keep flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
In short, not just OPEC+, but certainly investors, traders, governments, even central banks around the world will be monitoring oil prices very closely in the immediate term.
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2) Gold to hit new record high?
Judging by XAUt0 prices over the weekend, tokenised gold did briefly make it all the way up to $5555.61 (see earlier chart above).
If such weekend price action tracks at this week's cash start for TradFi markets, that would mark a mere 0.77% away from the all-time high for spot gold (bybit: XAUUSD+) of $5598.61 posted on January 29th, 2026.
Fresh demand for safety should add Gold's upward impetus, potentially even pushing it to new record highs.
NOTE: Safe havens are assets (e.g. Gold, US Treasuries, US dollar, Swiss Franc, etc.) that have historically helped investors protect their wealth during times of heightened fear/risks/uncertainties.
What could limit gold's upside?
Should oil prices spike uncontrollably, that could in turn ramp up inflation fears.
The thought of higher inflation may prevent major central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, from cutting interest rates.
ECONS 101: Central banks use HIGHER interest rates as a main weapon to cool down inflation.
Gold tends to rise at the thought of US interest rates going down.
Hence, Gold's upside may be capped if markets latch onto the narrative of unruly inflation stemming from oil price spikes preventing the Fed from lowering US interest rates over the course of 2026.
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3) SP500 to tumble, briefly?
Should the weekend's price action for SPYx track over into the TradFi world's start to the trading week, a severe bout of risk-off mode across equities may see Bybit's SP500 also retest critical support around the 6750 level.
Note that the 6750 region has been a key battleground between bulls and bears since October 2025.
[Trade SP500 Button [Not Shortened URL]]<https://www.bybit.com/trade/tradfi/SP500>
What could limit US stock market's downside?
Declines for US equities may be limited once markets have digested the fears/risks/uncertainties from the ongoing Middle East conflict, and are deemed to be contained.
The "buy-the-dip" mantra may come in with force, especially if markets believe that the Middle East conflict will not have a lasting negative impact on US companies' earnings outlooks.
Geopolitical risk premiums often temporary
History has shown that geopolitical conflicts tend to have only a shortened impact on financial markets.
Granted, although the ongoing Middle East conflict is unprecedented on multiple fronts, markets are set to overcome the initial knee-jerk volatility, provided the current war does not fundamentally alter the outlooks for major economies, central banks, and big company earnings.
Still, it's that big price swings in the near future that could present the biggest market opportunities.
So stay alert and ready.
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