AI Summary
Show More
Quickly grasp the article's content and gauge market sentiment in just 30 seconds!
Detailed Summary
It was yet another volatile weekend surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, while Tehran fired on ships and reimposed controls on this critical chokehold for global trade.
This past weekend's erratic events are setting up global markets on a tense final stretch before the US-Iran ceasefire is due to end tomorrow (Tuesday, April 21).
As markets keep watch over the ever-fluid and highly uncertain developments surrounding the Middle East conflict, other scheduled macro events could evoke further volatility for these 3 assets this week.
Assets & Events Watchlist:
1) GBPUSD+ to form "death cross"?
A "death cross" is when an asset's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below its 200-day SMA.
A "death cross" typically signals more price declines ahead.
Ask TradeGPT: What is a death cross and what does it mean for traders?
With just 9 pips currently between those 2 widely-followed technical indicators for GBPUSD+, it remains to be seen whether this week's events could keep dragging this major FX pair lower.
KEY EVENTS:
Tuesday, April 21: UK February unemployment and March jobless claims
Tuesday, April 21: Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Fed Chair
Wednesday, April 22: UK March consumer price index (CPI) a.k.a. inflation
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
UPSIDE: GBPUSD+ may reach the 1.3645 upside target if ... - the 2-week US-Iran ceasefire is extended, while the conflict continues to de-escalate - better-than-expected UK jobs data - Warsh indicates preference for lower US interest rates - UK inflation comes in above market forecasts
Such fundamental macro events may even help GBPUSD+ shrug off the expected declines even in the event of a technical "death cross", at least for the time being.
DOWNSIDE: GBPUSD+ may reach the 1.3355 downside target if ... - the US-Iran ceasefire shatters and the military conflict resumes in the Middle East - weaker-than-expected UK jobs data - Warsh indicates preference for higher US interest rates - UK inflation comes in below market forecasts
READ MORE (published April 10): "Death Cross" Alert - EURUSD+
2) Nikkei225 to hit new record high?
Last Friday (April 17), the Nikkei225 attempted to join in the tide of new record highs for major stock indices.
READ MORE (published April 16): S&P 500 hits new record high! And it's not the only one.
However, Japan's benchmark stock index was once again thwarted around the 60,000 big, round number.
At the time of writing, the Nikkei225's all-time peak (using intraday prices) still stands at the 60,077.50 mark posted on February 25th - before the Iran war erupted.
KEY EVENTS:
Friday, April 24: Japan March national consumer price index (CPI) a.k.a. inflation
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
UPSIDE: Nikkei225 may post a new record high above 60,077.50 if the 2-week US-Iran ceasefire is extended, while the Middle East conflict continues to de-escalate. A weaker Yen (JPY) following lower-than-expected Japanese inflation data may also boost Japanese stock markets.
DOWNSIDE: Nikkei225 may be dragged back down to the 56k region if the Iran war erupts once more, with a stronger Yen (JPY) following higher-than-expected Japanese inflation data perhaps also heaping more downward pressure on Japanese stocks.
3) Bitcoin to reclaim $80k?
Chaos surrounding the Strait of Hormuz over the past weekend translated into some risk-off moves, pulling Bitcoin back below the $78k region and away from its 2-month high.
However, at the time of writing, prices of the world's biggest and oldest crypto appear to have found support around its 100-day SMA.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
UPSIDE: An extension to the US-Iran ceasefire may encourage more risk-taking activities across global financial markets that helps BTCUSDT reclaim the $80,000 pscyhologicaly-important level for the first time since January 31st, 2026.
DOWNSIDE: If its 100-day SMA fails to hold, BTCUSDT may re-test the $70k psychological level for support. A major bout of risk aversion across markets may even drag BTCUSDT back into the $67k - $68k region, testing support at its rising lower trendline since its February 6th intraday low.
Grab Up to 100 USDT in Rewards
Also, enjoy 555% APR on Bybit Earn products!