Middle East Watch: How high could Brent Oil go?



• Brent Oil hits 1-year high, revisits $80/bbl price region as expected

• Middle East conflict already disrupting oil and LNG supplies, choking Straits of Hormuz tanker traffic

• Rising oil prices could fuel global inflation, derail Fed policy outlook, and feed US voter discontent ahead of midterm elections

• Citigroup, JPMorgan, and other market watchers have forecasts ranging from $85, to as high as $150 per barrel (/bbl).

• A return to $100/bbl would mark first time world sees triple-digit Brent since 2022



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The conflict between Iran, Israel, and the US is widening across the Middle East.

Major assets are performing as we'd forecasted in our Sunday special preview:

• Brent Oil (Bybit: UKOUSD) hit a new 1-year high at $82.466 - its highest since January 2025. The global oil benchmark has clearly revisited the $80/bbl region, as we'd expected since our Sunday (March 1st) report.

• Bybit's SP500 saw a "brief tumble" to within 0.15% of our 6750 downside target cited on Sunday, before now rebounding to meet its recent foe - the 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

• Safe haven Gold is holding around $5300, en route to its all-time intraday high which is just about 5% away.



Remarkably, major cryptocurrencies - which typically fall in a risk-off environment - are holding relatively steady:

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) actually rose on Mon, March 2, only to be resisted at the $70,000 psychological level.

• Ethereum (ETHUSDT) rose to reclaim the psychological $2,000 level.



Amid the raging conflict, which threatens to extend into weeks in President Trump's view ...

Oil prices are taking centre stage in global financial markets.

This global commodity is, of course, of paramount importance, and will be watched closely by traders, investors, governments, and even central banks around the world.



Why Oil is taking center stage?

• Middle East = global supplier: The Middle East supplies about one-third of global oil output, and one-fifth of global gas output. About 15% of the world's energy needs are met by Middle East suppliers.

• Critical chokepoint disruption: The Strait of Hormuz handles a fifth of the world's oil. The ongoing conflict has already halted tanker traffic, creating immediate supply constraints that cannot be easily replaced.

• Infrastructure under attack: Iranian strikes have forced the closure of both the world's biggest LNG facility in Qatar and Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery, while Israel suspended gas production at Chevron's Leviathan platform, demonstrating the vulnerability of regional energy infrastructure.

In short, a spike in oil prices may expose economic vulnerabilities around the world.



Should oil prices rise uncontrollably, that could even:

• Feed into global inflation and derail Europe's and Asia's economic prospects

• Higher inflation may prevent the Fed (the US Federal Reserve is the world's most-important central bank) from cutting US interest rates.

• Make US voters disgruntled with high inflation leading up to the crucial US mid-term elections in November



What could drive Brent Oil even higher?

• Duration and intensity of US-Israeli military operations against Iran

• The Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic — through which a fifth of global oil flows

• Iran's threats to fully close the strait

• Shipping costs have skyrocketed, amplifying the effective price of crude.

March 03 2026 - Market Pulse - Trade Brent Oil Now



How high can Brent Oil go?

• Citigroup forecasts Brent reaching $85/bbl (per barrel) over the short-term.

• Analysts from RBC to Rystad cites risk of triple-digit $100/bbl oil

• JPMorgan warns Brent could hit $120 per barrel.

Some analysts are even contemplating scenarios where Brent could reach $150 per barrel.





Ultimately, in a highly-fluid and increasingly fraught war, there are many moving parts and shifting factors to watch which could herald Brent Oil returning to triple-digits for the first time since 2022.